Bybit Options Weekly Review: Aug 3–Aug 10

TL;DR

• July nonfarm payrolls came in at −23,000 (vs. +80,000 expected); prior two months revised down a combined 103,000 — a shock-level miss; September rate hike expectations pared,  and gold surged

• BTC ETF weekly net inflows: $853M (third-largest single week YTD); ETH ETF: $245M (third-largest single week YTD) — institutional demand signal meaningfully improved

• CLARITY Act: Senate confirmed no vote before recess, pushed to September

• This week's key event: August 12 CPI (8:30 AM ET) — if CPI softens alongside NFP, September hike expectations could  unwind further; if CPI surprises hot, NFP contraction + CPI spike = stagflation signal

• Multiple strategies for suggestions this week: ETH Sell weekly 1800P (APY ~15%–20%, CPI risk management required); HYPE Short 1D Put at $52 (APY ~70%, elevated volatility, strict sizing); XAUT Short 1D Call at $4,360+ (APY ~30%–60%, close to money, precise management essential)

I. Weekly Market Recap

Price Action (Bybit Platform Data, August 4–10):

All three assets closed higher, with XAUT posting the largest gain. The week split cleanly in two: the first half (Aug 4–6) saw a quiet recovery driven by a soft ADP print and progress on Strait of Hormuz negotiations; the second half culminating in the Aug 7th NFP  saw a shock jobs miss, with BTC, ETH, and XAUT all moving sharply higher.

Event Timeline:

II. NFP Deep Dive: −23K Is a Real Shock, But the Details Are More Complex Than the Headline

2.1 Data Overview

The unemployment rate falling from 4.2% to 4.1% is a statistical illusion, not genuine improvement. A drop in the labor force participation rate means more people exited the workforce entirely and are no longer counted as unemployed — "statistical improvement," not labor market recovery.

2.2 Sector Breakdown

Job losses: Government education sector approximately −50,000 (government overall −53,000); leisure and hospitality −40,000; retail −19,000; financial activities −14,000.

Job gains: Healthcare and construction posted gains; private sector overall added 30,000.

Structural read: The net job loss was driven almost entirely by the government sector (−53,000), not a broad-based private sector contraction. Economists attribute much of the miss to seasonal factors likely to be revised away — but a combined 103,000 downward revision to prior months makes the "seasonal" explanation harder to lean on fully.

2.3 Fed Commentary and Market Impact

Richmond Fed President Barkin described the labor market as being in a "weak balance" and did not view wage growth as a significant inflation risk — a relatively dovish framing that contrasts with Warsh's prior hawkish tone.

The data's market impact was immediate and broad:

• Dollar index falls further away below 100 - key technical and psychological level

• Gold surges - dollar weakness + cooling rate hike expectations; XAUT +5.9%

• September hike probability drops sharply - from ~55% pre-NFP to 44%

• Classic "bad news = good news" reaction - equities, Treasuries, and precious metals all benefited

III. Technical Analysis

BTC: $64,000 Reclaimed, $65,534–$66,400 Is the Next Test

NFP drove BTC back above $64,000 (now at ~$65,100), flipping that level back into a support role after last week's breakdown. But the Two-B structure's key validation zone at $66,400–$67,000 remains intact — the market has now twice failed to clear $67,000, and that overhead resistance has not changed.

ETH: Holding Above $1,900, Approaching $1,950–$2,000 Heavy Resistance

ETH now at ~$1,917, testing support at its 21-day SMA in recent days The W-bottom neckline at $1,800 was never threatened throughout the week; the double-bottom structure remains fully intact. The $1,800–$1,850 support zone validated on August 1 has now established itself as a reliable base.

The next resistance is directly ahead: $1,950–$2,000 is the heaviest trapped-buyer supply zone — breaking through it requires volume confirmation, not just macro tailwinds.

XAUT: $4,300–$4,400 Is Heavy Resistance, Pullback Demand Exists

XAUT surged on NFP and is now consolidating near $4,300. Both the fundamental backdrop and technical structure supported the rally — but at current levels:

• 4H bearish divergence confirmed — momentum oscillators (RSI) on the 4-hour chart are printing lower highs while price made a higher high; a pullback is technically overdue and should be anticipated before any continuation higher

• $4,300–$4,400 is a dense resistance zone — prior highs clustered here; overhead supply is meaningful

• The technical setup calls for a pullback toward support — normal digestion after a sharp move; support zone approximately $4,200–$4,250

• Operational bias: sell strength via Short Call — not chasing the move higher

IV. ETF Flows: YTD Third-Largest Weekly Inflows for Both BTC and ETH

BTC ETF total assets have climbed to approximately $80 billion. 

Bitcoin whale addresses have been accumulating steadily, rising from a trough of 3.05M BTC in December 2025 to approximately 3.06M BTC — reflecting sustained large-holder accumulation on dips below $60,000.

The key read: Last week's institutional inflows arrived simultaneously with the weakest NFP print in years. This suggests the institutional bid reflects longer-term cost-basis positioning, not just a tactical "bad news = good news" trade. Both BTC and ETH recording their third-largest weekly inflows of the year in the same week marks the strongest institutional participation of this entire cycle.

V. Outlook for This week (August 11–17)

August 12 CPI is the next most important single data point of the cycle.

CPI three scenarios:

VI. This Week's Strategy: Three Positions, Differentiated Risk Management

This week's strategy spans three underlying assets. Risk management is the shared foundation across all three.

7.1 ETH — Sell weekly Put

The logic: The W-bottom neckline at $1,800 is holding firmly, DVOL at 49% provides reasonable premium yield, and the double-bottom structure remains intact. Selling the weekly $1,800 Put captures time value while the structural support is valid. CPI on August 12 is a significant risk event that requires active position management throughout the week.

Stop discipline:

• ETH daily close below $1,800 → close immediately; neckline invalidated

• CPI surprises hot → close entire position immediately; no averaging

• ETH single-day move exceeding 5% during CPI window → reassess all positions

7.2 HYPE — Sell 1D Put

Background: HYPE options have officially launched on Bybit. Technically, $52 is a key daily support level.

⚠️ Special risk notice:

HYPE's implied volatility is meaningfully higher than ETH's — the 70% APY is real compensation for real risk, not a free lunch:

• Re-confirm $52 support validity at each daily roll - do not blindly renew without checking technicals

• Hard stop: HYPE breaks below $50 on a confirmed close → close entire position immediately, no averaging

• Close all HYPE Puts before CPI (Aug 12, 8:30 AM ET) — unless one's risk appetite allows, no open positions through major macro events

• If intraday loss on any single day exceeds 3x the premium collected, consider stopping  operations for that day

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7.3 XAUT — Sell 1D Call, Fade the Rally

The logic: Gold received both fundamental and technical support last week, but is now consolidating near $4,300. The $4,300–$4,400 zone is heavy resistance, and the setup calls for a pullback toward support rather than immediate continuation. Selling Calls into strength is more favorable than chasing the move.

⚠️ Special risk notice:

At $4,360 strike vs. $4,280 current price, the gap is only ~+1.9% — assignment risk is real and not trivial:

• Monitor the position actively each day — XAUT can move to the strike in a single session

• If XAUT approaches $4,360, buy back early — do not hold to expiry and risk assignment

• Hard stop: XAUT breaks above $4,400 on a sustained basis → close entire position; reassess

• Close all XAUT Calls before CPI (Aug 12, 8:30 AM ET) — gold is highly sensitive to inflation data; a hot CPI print could send XAUT through the strike instantly

VII. Weekly Summary:

• NFP down 23K, shock-level miss. Expected +80K; actual −23K; prior two months revised down 103K combined; average hourly earnings +3.2% YoY (multi-year low).  XAUT +5.9%, BTC and ETH rally. September hike expectations cooled sharply — but CPI on August 12 is the real arbiter.

• ETF flows hit YTD third-largest weekly inflow for both BTC ($853M) and ETH ($245M) — the strongest institutional participation week of the entire cycle.

• Three strategy positions this week:

• ETH: Sell weekly 1800P, APY ~15%–20%; reduce to 30%–40% before CPI; close immediately on a hot print

• HYPE: Sell 1D 52P, APY ~70%; strict sizing 30%–50%; elevated vol requires daily reassessment; close before CPI (8:30 AM ET Aug 12)

• XAUT: Sell 1D 4360C, APY ~30%–60%; strike is close to money, active daily management required; close before CPI (8:30 AM ET Aug 12)

• The shared rule across all three: reduce all positions to a safe level before August 12 CPI at 8:30 AM ET. CPI is this week's largest risk event — no position in any of the three strategies should be carried at full size through the print.