3 Assets to Watch (Oct 5-9): EURUSDUSDT, Amazon, and Bitcoin

• Watch FOMC meeting minutes and Fed speakers, amid relatively lighter macro calendar

• EURUSD now at 17-month low; Bloomberg model: 77% of 1.106 - 1.131 trading range this week

• Amazon Prime Big Deal Days: Oct 6th-7th; AMZN stocks rose in 4 of the last 5 Oct sales events

• Bitcoin range-bound between $82.4k - $87.4k over past 2 weeks. Can Up-tober send BTC to $90k?



This week is set to be relatively quiet on the macro calendar.



Still, there have been notable moves of late:

• New record highs (intraday prices), from the the NAS100 index to Nvidia.

• Tesla fully respected BOTH our upside and downside targets set a week ago.

• EURUSD - the world's most-traded currency pair - has reached its lowest levels in 17 months, since May 2025.



Still, as we diligently do every Monday, we distill the week's major events into 3 assets to watch that could present your next trading opportunity:



1) EURUSD - How much further will it fall?



EURUSD is the most-traded FX pair in the world, with the euro accounting for about 29% of all trades in an FX market that sees US$ 9.6 trillion change hands per day.

EURUSD has fallen to its weakest levels in 17 months - since May 2025, dragged down by:

• political risks in Spain and France (Spain has called for a snap election on Nov 29th)

• weak government finances among euro area members, including France, Italy, and Belgium

NOTE: A currency tends to weaken when its region faces political instability, prompting investors to pull money out and park it in safer places, like the US dollar.

While the political and fiscal woes in Europe sets the backdrop for the euro's performance, there are major factors to watch this week on the US dollar side of the EURUSD equation:

Key USD Themes to Watch

• Wed, Oct 7th: FOMC minutes

• All week: Fed speakers

From the September FOMC meeting's minutes - when the Fed hiked its benchmark rates for the first time since 2023, to all of the scheduled public speeches by Fed officials, traders and investors will be scouring these events for extra clues about how intent the Fed is at hiking rates further in the months ahead.

Here's what markets currently predict the Fed will do to US interest rates for the 2 remaining scheduled FOMC meetings in 2026:

• October 28th: no hike (only 18% chance)

• December 9th: hike by another 25-basis points (97% chance)

The changes in these market expectations for the next Fed rate hike (or not) is bound to move the US dollar and impact EURUSD.



Bloomberg's FX model forecasts a 77% chance that EURUSD will trade between 1.106 - 1.131 this week.

Trade EURUSD perps now

Potential Scenarios

• UPSIDE: EURUSD may recover toward 1.1300 if the FOMC minutes and Fed speakers strike a dovish tone, while market concerns subside over European political and fiscal risks.

• DOWNSIDE: EURUSD may hit a fresh 17-month low and hit 1.1060 if European political and fiscal outlooks deteriorate, while the FOMC minutes and Fed speakers still speak of the Fed's intent to keep raising rates.

^NOTE:

• ^{EURUSD prices go up when the euro strengthens vs. USD / US dollar weakens against the euro}

• ^{EURUSD prices go down when the euro weakens vs. USD / US dollar strengthens against the euro}





2) Amazon: Oct sales event to boost stocks for 4th straight year?



Amazon's two-day Prime Big Deal Days sale kicks off Tuesday, October 6.

The October sale event - the second in the calendar year - was launched in 2022, as a follow up to its original summer event.

During the October event in particular, AMZN share prices have risen over the past 3 annual events in a row:

• Oct 11th-12th, 2022: -0.7%

• Oct 10th-11th, 2023: +2.8%

• Oct 8th-9th, 2024: +2.4%

• Oct 7th-8th, 2025: +2%

If this trend continues in the 2026 edition, that could mean more upside for AMZN in the days ahead.

Though to be certain, AWS is the real story.

Amazon's stock is increasingly driven by its AI/cloud business, not retail i.e. any AI/AWS-related news, or even macro events that move broader markets, would matter more than Prime Day sales figures.

Trade AMZN perps now

Potential Scenarios

• UPSIDE: AMZN may push towards $260 - a key battleground between bulls and bears since August - if Prime Day sales beat expectations, while macro events remain conducive of US stock gains.

• DOWNSIDE: AMZN could re-test critical support around $245 if Prime Day sales disappoint or risk-off mood drags down US equities.

For the longer-term, Wall Street experts surveyed by Bloomberg predict that Amazon stocks can climb another 32% over the next 12 months.





3) Bitcoin - another attempt at $90k?



Almost exactly 1 year ago, BTC perps on Bybit hit a record $126,150 on October 6th, 2025.

Then followed the dramatic crash, with cryptos having endured much over the past 12 months.

At the time of writing, BTC remains some 31% below that all-time high.

However, since June 2026, Bitcoin has been staging a comeback:

• advanced for the past 3 consecutive months (July - September)

• climbed for the past 3 weeks in a row

• gained in 6 of the past 7 weeks

• coming off the back of its highest weekly close in 8 months

• climbed about 2.6% so far in October 2026

Can Up-tober be restored in 2026?

More recently, prices of the world's oldest and biggest cryptocurrency have been stuck between the $82.4k - $87.4k range over the past 2 weeks.

Bitcoin bulls (those hoping prices will move higher) will be heartened by Citi, who last week raised their 12-month BTC target to $113,000.

Trade Bitcoin perps now

Potential Scenarios this week:

• UPSIDE: If Bitcoin can meaningfully break above $87.4k, then BTC could finally strive towards re-claiming the $90,000 handle - assuming the broader market's risk appetite is willing to chase such gains.

• DOWNSIDE: A bout of profit-taking or risk-off sentiment could send Bitcoin re-testing the $82.4k price region for critical support once more.







DISCLAIMER: This article is provided for general information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.