Can Forex forecast quarterfinal results?



And then, there are only 8.



The quarterfinals at the world's greatest football tournament get underway today.

This presents the latest opportunity to continue our series of articles exploring whether currency markets (a.k.a. foreign exchange a.k.a forex a.k.a. FX) has any bearing on matches between football's elite nations.

To be clear, as stated since our first report of this series on June 11th:

" ... we are not suggesting that sporting superiority is a contributing factor for a country's FX/equities performance. Merely that such comparisons make for intriguing reading."

Nor does ...

"Progress at the world's biggest sporting event ... impact currency markets, nor the other way around" (published June 25th).

Still, we use this opportunity, amid the football fever, to indulge and assess how far the correlation goes.





Forex - Football: How well has the relationship held so far?





• 4 out of 5 best-performing currencies (of countries at the World Cup) failed to progress into quarterfinals

Here's a look at the best-performing currencies (vs. USD) of the 48 nations represented at this year's tournament:

1) Colombian Peso: +13.1% vs. US Dollar so far in 2026

2) Paraguay Guarani: +8.5% vs. US Dollar so far in 2026

3) Brazilian Real: +6.3% vs. US Dollar so far in 2026

4) Australian Dollar :+3.9% vs. US Dollar so far in 2026

5) Norwegian Krone: +3.3% vs. US Dollar so far in 2026

i.e. A stronger currency doesn't translate into progress at the World Cup.



Conversely ...



• Group matches played up till June 25th: 53% rate* that the winning team on the pitch has a WEAKER currency against its opponents.

^{* results from AI query, employing Bloomberg's AskB, ChatGPT, and Claude}





More recently ...

• Round of 16 = 71.4% rate (5 out of 7* matches) country with WEAKER (heard-to-head) currency WINS

^{*excludes Spain vs. Portugal round of 16 match, as both nations use the Euro as their currency}

NOTES:

• percent figures below represent currency's year-to-date (ytd) performance, until the eve of the match

• Morocco vs. Canada and Argentina vs. Egypt are the 2 matches that went against the trend (country with weaker currency wins)

Take a closer look at the table above, especially the "vs. USD" columns, and some other fascinating sub-trends emerge.

• When pitting a country with ytd currency DECLINES (against USD) vs. a country with ytd currency ADVANCES (against USD), the country with YTD currency DECLINES wins! (EUR, GBP, CHF)

• When BOTH countries' currencies have year-to-date DECLINES vs. US Dollar (i.e. Morocco vs. Canada, and Argentina vs. Egypt) = country with SMALLER ytd currency decline WINS.

• When BOTH countries' currencies have year-to-date ADVANCES vs. US Dollar (i.e. Norway vs. Brazil) = country with SMALLER ytd currency advance WINS.







Quarterfinals: Will this trend continue?



Here's how the remaining 8 nations' currencies stack up leading up to their matches:

NOTES:

• percent figures below represent currency's year-to-date performance, until July 8th closing price

• weaker currency in bold, below



Although matters on the football pitch should wholly disregard FX moves, it would still make for a thought-provoking watch to see if market trends do align with these upcoming quarterfinal results, and beyond.



READ MORE

• published June 11th: World Champions so far in 2026 - Which football nations' stocks/currencies lead global rankings?

• published June 19th: Update - World Beaters in FX and Stock Markets

• published June 25th: Can Forex Markets Predict Football Matches?





DISCLAIMER:

This article is provided for general information and reflects the author's views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.